On the processor front, I concur with one prediction made by analyst Doug Freedman of Broadpoint AmTech: Nvidia Corp. will enter the x86-based processor market. I myself see Nvidia entering the x86-based netbook processor market, not the mainstream processor fray. Nvidia already has an ARM-based solution, so why not an x86-based device? It's a big gamble, however. Many have tried and failed to compete against Intel.
12. Advanced Middle East Devices rolls
It will be another tough year for Advanced Micro Devices Inc. I see more investments made by the Abu Dhabi government, giving the Middle East entity control over the processor maker.
13. Legal bill blues
Intel will lose the FTC suit. Other suits will follow against the chip giant. It's a moot point. The chip giant will continue to own 90 percent of processor market. Intel will also gain control of the netbook processor market, prompting suits from ARM Holding plc.
14. National goes national
Now that Brian Halla is no longer in charge at National Semiconductor Corp., I get the feeling that the analog house is a takeover target. I see Texas Instruments Inc. making a bid. TI would also like to acquire Atmel Corp. in an effort to expand its microcontroller efforts.
15. Let's Free Scale!
This has to be the year Freescale Semiconductor Inc. is acquired. Freescale's losses cannot continue. I see Infineon Technologies AG buying all or part of Freescale.
16. NXP sells itself this time
What will happen to poor NXP Inc.? The company continues to sell off divisions. I see STMicroelectronics gobbling up NXP itself.
17. Microcontroller mess
2010 will be a tough year for the merger of Renesas Technology Corp. and NEC Electronics Inc. The companies are set to merge soon, but there is a lot of work to do. Look for mass layoffs and plant shutdowns.
18. 450-mm on ice
More delays for 450-mm. Intel, Samsung and TSMC are pushing for 450-mm prototype fabs by 2012. Fab tool vendors are not biting. So, the new target date for 450-mm prototype fabs is 2015.
19. EUV does not see the light
There is good and bad news for extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography. Samsung will put EUV into R&D for DRAM prototyping in 2010. Intel will move into EUV R&D. IMEC and Sematech will get new pre-production EUV machines from ASML this year. But the new, full-blown production tools are now pushed out to 2018.
20. Immersion is not wet
193-nm immersion sees a new breakthrough. A new resist from JSR Corp. enables 193-nm to extend to 22-nm with fewer double-patterning steps. 16-nm is feasible. EUV gets pushed out again.
21. New packages
A new wave of consolidation hits the IC-packaging and test world. Taiwan's Advanced Semiconductor Engineering Inc. (ASE) buys Asat Holdings and ChipMOS. Singapore's STATS ChipPac buys Unisem Berhad of Malaysia. Perhaps the biggest news is that Amkor Technology Inc. and Siliconware will form a joint venture to take on ASE.
22. Solar or bust
MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. spins out its silicon wafer unit into new and independent company. MEMC decides to focus on solar.
23. New lows for high-k
IBM's Corp. ''fab club'' delays high-k. Intel has a huge lead in high-k for gate stacks. IBM and AMD were looking at the 32-nm node for high-k. Now, it's delayed to the 28- and 22-nm nodes.
24. Fab tool consolidation frenzy
Every year, I try to predict the mergers in the fab tool sector. I will try again here. Every year, we predict Novellus Systems Inc. and Lam Research Corp. will merge. Every year, we're wrong. I'm not betting on that one for 2010.
Applied Materials Inc. will continue to go on a buying spree. Look for Applied to buy more solar gear firms. Amtech comes to mind. Another wild prediction: Applied will make another hostile bid to buy ASM International BV.
Another possibility: ASMI's shareholders will once again force the company to break up the company. This time around, shareholders succeed. As a result, ASMI's front- and back-end entities will become two separate companies.
Once upon a time, I predicted that ASML Holding NV would enter the nano-imprint market. I see them buying Obducat AB. ASML may also make a play for Micronic Laser Systems Inc., a struggling supplier of pattern generation equipment.
KLA-Tencor Corp. will continue to buy companies. I see the company making a play for Nanometrics Inc. In 2010, LTX-Credence will look for a buyer. All along, I've said that Verigy Inc. looks like the best suitor for the ATE company.
Other predictions: Canon Inc. will exit the high-end lithography market in 2010.
FSI International goes on the block. The bidders: Applied and Tokyo Electron Ltd. TEL will make a bid for Mattson.
25. Who's on the hot seat?
In 2010, I see a lot of CEOs on the hot seat, based on the performances of their companies in recent times. These CEOs won't necessarily lose their jobs, but they face an inordinate amount of challenges. Their performances will be watched like a hawk. Here's my list:
*Steve Appleton, Micron's chairman and CEO. A make or break year?
*Yasushi Akao, president of Renesas. He will become president of the combined Renesas-NEC Electronics entity, which faces some nightmarish integration issues.
*Peter Bauer, Infineon's member of the management board and CEO. Can company recover from DRAM snafu?
*Rich Beyer, Freescale's chairman and CEO. Has the company run out of time?
*Robert Bruggeworth, president and CEO of RF Micro. Can company recover from downturn?
*Geesung Choi, Samsung Electronics' president and CEO. Looking over shoulder? (Jay Y. Lee is being groomed for the post. Lee is the only son of Lee Kun Hee, the former Samsung chairman.)
*Richard Clemmer, NXP's president and CEO. What's next?
*David Dutton, Mattson's president and CEO. Tough times for fab tool firm.
*Chuck del Prado, ASMI's president and CEO. Changes in the wind?
*Anthony Holbrook, MIPS' interim president and CEO. Who will step in tough spot?
*Jen-Hsun Huang, Nvidia's president and CEO. Has magic touch run out?
*J.K. Kim, Hynix' president and CEO. Who will buy Korean company?
*John Kispert, Spansion's CEO. Can company emerge from Chapter 11?
*Steven Laub, Atmel's president and CEO. Is restructuring over?
*Dirk Meyer, AMD's president and CEO. Can the losses continue?
*Haruo Matsuno, Advantest's CEO. ATE giant losing ground.
*Paul Otellini, Intel's president and CEO. Intel continues to dominate, but not on the legal front.
*Mary Puma, Axcelis' president and CEO. Tough times for ion implanter supplier.
*Yukio Sakamoto, president and CEO of Elpida. Can he keep the ship afloat?
*Shih-Wei Sun, United Microelectronics Corp.'s CEO. UMC is in danger of falling behind.
*David N.K. Wang, SMIC's president and CEO. Can he turn the losing tide?
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